The GameMaster's Poker School
Lesson 19: Special Situation Bets:
The Dead Money Bet

All of us are capable of making a profit with a pair of Aces or Kings, but it's what we do with marginal hands, like pairs below 8-8, that can make a big difference in the overall profitability of our game. You may wonder why I specifically chose a pair of eights as my "line of demarcation". I do so because eights are the median cards in a deck; median meaning half the cards are of lower value (2s through 7s) and half are higher (9s through Aces) - six of each with 8s making up the 13th card. So, it follows that half the time you hold a pair of 8s, any opponent that also holds a pair has you beat. However, the nice thing about pair versus pair matchups is that they are rare. The odds that one of your opponents at a full table has a pair when you have a pair is roughly 30 to 1, but if you have 2-2, you're almost certainly beaten. However, that doesn't mean you shouldn't make the bet I'll be describing here.

In my experience, in the early stages of a tournament, be it single- or multi-table, players will limp into a lot of pots when given the opportunity to do so. Of course, many players will limp with trash hands and a pair Aces alike, so if you're in late position (Cutoff or Button) and you also limp, you're never really sure where you stand. One of my favorite sayings is, "Expect anything in an unraised pot." The way to handle that is to put in a nice healthy raise if, say, at least four players have limped in and you're in late position with a hand that can win on its own. Obviously, that means any pocket pair, but it can also mean a hand with an Ace or a King, suited or otherwise. Yes, most likely you'll have to hit something on the flop to win if all you have is A-x or K-x, but a pair of Aces or Kings will often be a winner, so that's what I mean by "win on its own." I would not include Q-x or lower in this category.

So let's say you have one of these qualifying hands and the blinds are 5/10 in the early stages of a sit & go tourney. With four limpers and the blinds, the pot will be 55 when it gets to you and you should raise the bet to at least 70. That means it will cost the Small Blind 65 more to get in on a pot of 125, giving him nearly 2 to 1 pot odds, so don't be surprised by his call, which will raise the pot to 190. The Big Blind will have to put in 60 more which will be 3 to 1 pot odds, so again, don't be surprised if he calls. Of course, you don't really want to see this hand to a showdown, but if the two blinds do call, you'll have 70 chips invested in a pot that is now valued at 250, which is better than 3.5 to 1 pot odds. Should you hold a pocket pair, your probability of success with a pair of 2s against two random hands like the blinds is 31% (just under 2 to 1), but the pot is offering 3.5 to 1. If you hold 7-7, your probability of winning is 44%, which is just under even-money. (For a good look at your probabilities against the two blinds, see Lesson 13.) Of course, other limpers may also call, but that will only raise your pot odds, although you're very likely facing a "real" hand if they do. If someone re-raises, you should probably fold if your hand is lower than 8-8. I say "probably" because in an online sit & go tourney, you may not have much of a read on that player and he may have limped with a big pair like As or Ks, in which case you're about a 4 to 1 underdog or he may have A-x or K-x, in which case you have the best of it. So, if the pots odds warrant a call, you'll have to use your best judgment, but I lean toward folding. A re-raise is the worst-case scenario, but what you'll generally find is that everyone will fold to your raise except one other player and that person will just call, which makes any other $$$ in the pot "dead money", thus the name of this bet. 

Of course, every hand is different, but if I raise preflop and the remaining player(s) check to me after the flop, ninety percent of the time I'm going to bet at least 75% of the pot at that point. Remember, your preflop raise basically said, "I have a pair or two big cards" so if an Ace or King comes on the flop, just about the only player who can call my post-flop bet is someone who either has an Ace or a King, a pair that made a set or a drawing hand. If the flop misses me completely, I'm still making that bet and hopefully my opponent will fold. I only start to worry if I'm called. If I'm re-raised, I just drop the hand and that's that, but a caller is very likely slow-playing me. Now remember, I've got "position" in this example and get to act last. With a hand like 2-2, if my opponent who called then bets after the turn card is placed on the board, I'm going to fold unless it's a third 2, in which case I'll re-raise. If my opponent checks on the turn, most of the time I'm going to check too and I'll get to see the river card for free. The river will take care of itself; I'll either be able to call a bet or I won't.

But the vast majority of the time when you make this bet, the others will fold and you'll have made a nice profit at very little risk. The tighter your image, the better this works. Only relatively sophisticated players will see this bet as a "steal", but even they'll be surprised a lot of the time because very aggressive players will make a bet like this with any two cards and you're doing it with a pretty good hand. Remember, even 2-2 has the best of it against two unpaired overcards.

The Overbet

If and when you find yourself with one of the larger stacks at the table, you naturally don't want to tangle with anyone who has a bigger stack than you unless you have a super-premium hand. But that doesn't mean you should just sit and wait for pocket Aces to show up. If there are several players to your left who have a chip stack equal to ten or fewer Big Blind bets and the pot is unraised when it's your turn, put out a bet that's five or six times the BB, even if you have a "marginal" hand like A-9o, K-Js or a pair of 2s to 5s. Such a bet puts a lot of pressure on those with smaller stacks and most of the time they'll fold, especially if you're all close to getting "in the money". Beware of the big stacks - ideally they have already folded - but don't do this if one of them will be acting after you. In the later stages of a tournament, the blinds and antes can be a significant amount, and, so long as a 5x raise isn't more than 20% or so of your stack, this technique can pick up quit a few chips at a critical time. Plus, it makes you look like a "bully", which is a good image to have when you're really a fairly tight player. Holding a less-than-premium hand makes it easy to fold if someone re-raises you. But before you fold, see what kind of pot odds you're being offered and whether or not the re-raiser has gone all in; they may be just acting out of desperation and it might be profitable to make the call.

The GameMaster's Poker School
Lesson 20: Is 2 to 1 a Good Deal?

The quick answer: maybe. If I were to offer you two to one odds on a coin flip, it would be a great bet, at least from a probability point of view. The math is simple; I'd be willing to pay you $2 on your $1 bet based upon an event that will happen one time out of two tries. The probability of success is 50%, but you need a probability of only 33% to break even, so that's a great bet, at least on the surface. You can probably tell I'm hinting about a downside here, so let's talk about it in poker terms - specifically poker tournament terms, rather than cash or "ring" game terms. Why the distinction? Because in a cash game, if you take a 2 to 1 bet and lose, you can just reach in your pocket for more $$$. In a tournament, losing the hand may knock you out of contention or even bust you. It's like me offering you 2 to 1 on a coin flip, but you have to bet everything you own. Sure, do it often enough and you'll bust me, but if you lose the first time we do it, you're busted and don't get a second chance. Does two to one still sound good?

My point here is that every bet has a mathematical value, which can usually be measured precisely and a relative value, which is more difficult to measure because it must be done in relationship to other factors. Flipping a coin for a buck is one thing; flipping a coin for your entire net worth is another thing entirely. Fortunately, none of us has to risk our entire net worth on the outcome of a poker tournament, but we do want to finish as close to the top as possible, so we have to examine our bets from both a mathematical point of view and a relative point of view. For example, let's say you're in the Big Blind, which is $200 and you have $3000 left in chips after posting. A player in Middle Position bets $700 and everyone, including the Small Blind folds. The pot is now $1000 ($100 SB, $200 BB, $700 from MP player) and it will cost you $500 to call, so you're getting two to one on your money. Now remember that your $200 blind bet is gone - once it's posted, it no longer belongs to you, so you don't use that in figuring odds like this. It's simply a case of paying $500 to try and win $1000, which is 2 to 1 pot odds. In Lesson 2, I showed you some basic poker math that tells us how to convert probability to odds and vice-versa. Pot odds of 2 to 1 means you need a probability of just over 33% to break even (add 2 + 1 = 3; divide that into 100 and the result is 33.33). So, if we have a hand that we think has a 34% probability of winning, the math says it's a call.

But there are several problems here. First of all, if the raiser has A-A and we have Q-Q, our probability of winning is only about 20%, so we're not getting a good "price" for our bet. On the other hand, if our opponent raised with, say, A-K offsuit, our probability of winning is closer to 55%, which makes this a great call with Q-Q. But what if we have to go all-in to make the call? Is the return big enough; is 2 to 1 a good deal? For me, if I were short-stacked, I'd be happy to get all my $$$ into the pot with a pair of Queens. If my opponent has A-A or K-K, I'm basically toast and as the saying goes, "that's poker", but I'm a favorite in most other situations. Sadly, most hands you'll encounter are not as clear-cut as this. What's more likely is that you'll hold something like 5-5, K-Jo or A-4 suited (I'm assuming you'll fold the truly "junk" hands like Q-7o,10-5s, etc.) and calling the bet won't force you all-in, but it would be a shame to miss a chance to add to your stack. What to do?

First, of course, you have to consider the source of the bet. A Middle Position raise from a player you perceive as "tight" may well mean s/he has a pocket pair of 9s or better or maybe A-Ko, A-Js or K-Qs. Here's how those hands match up against yours:

It's easy to see that calling if you have a pair or a suited A-x is, for the most part, profitable or very close to it. The problem is that you're really in trouble if your opponent has a pair higher than yours, or if s/he has one of your cards along with a higher kicker, like A-Ko vs. K-Jo. But even there, if the pot is paying you 3 to 1, it's not the worst call you'll ever make. These numbers obviously don't cover all possible situations, but they at least will give you a feel for what you can expect when the pot is offering 2 to 1 on your money. Of course, if your opponent is a "loose" player who might raise with hands like Q-Js, A-10o or 6-6, then your probabilities will look even better, so it's probably fair to say the percentages shown here are a worst-case scenario.

There is no hard and fast rule that can come out of this discussion because the possibility of your opponent holding a high (Jacks or better) pair skews the numbers quite bit. While every hand is different, I'd be very tempted to call with any pair; any hand with a King, face card and any A-x suited when the pot is paying 2 to 1 or more. That's the math side of it. The "relative value" side, where I might have to go all in would find me playing any pair above 8-8 and very likely folding everything else, unless I have a stack of less than 5 times the Big Blind. In that case I'd play with any decent hand, like those listed above. If I'm short, but hold an A-x suited or a pair of 8s or better, I'll likely re-raise to try and win the pot right there, even though my short stack will basically tell the original raiser that I'm desperate, which greatly reduces my "folding equity".

The important thing to take away from this lesson is a feel for what hands are worth holding in a 2 to 1 pot odds situation. I've obviously not covered all of them, so you should continue comparing hands as I did here. My numbers come from the free poker odds calculator that's available at www.cardplayer.com/. When you get a chance, check out the probabilities for such "classic" matchups, like two overcards versus two lower, suited connectors and a pair versus a higher card and a lower card (10-10 vs. A-9, for example). You don't have to be exact about the percentages when you're involved in a hand, but knowing that your hand has a 33+% probability against what your opponent may be holding can earn you a lot of $$$ over the long-term.

I'll see you here next time.